Viewpoint | Academician responds to questions about new energy vehicles: The spontaneous combustion rate of electric vehicles will be further reduced

From March 15th to 17th, the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum (2024) was held at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing. The theme of this forum is "Consolidating and Expanding the Development Advantages of New Energy Vehicles". At a high-level forum held on the afternoon of March 16, Ouyang Minggao, vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicles Association of 100 and academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, discussed the current society’s doubts about new energy vehicles, including development strategies, technical paths, and future prospects. targeted response.

Ouyang Minggao, Vice Chairman of China Electric Vehicles Association of 100 and Academician of Chinese Academy of Sciences

1. Development strategy issues
Who is leading the development of vehicle electrification? There are voices on the Internet saying that vehicle electrification is a "trap" set by the West. Ouyang Minggao said that this is not consistent with the facts. The development of new energy vehicles is a major national strategy implemented by the Chinese government that comprehensively considers oil security, air pollution, and industrial upgrading.

Some voices believe that electrification is a trap set by the West

He said that there is a series of data showing that China is leading the transformation of automobile electrification. In 2015, China's production and sales of new energy vehicles ranked first in the world. This was the first time that China took the lead in successfully introducing high-tech civilian consumer goods on a large scale. The transformation of the foreign automobile industry has only begun on a large scale in 2016. 2016 is a landmark year for the global "pure electric drive" technology transformation.

Regarding intelligence, China is also one of the leading countries in intelligence. Ouyang Minggao said that electric vehicles have the inherent advantage of intelligence, and self-driving fuel vehicles cannot compete with electric vehicles. The accuracy of engine control cannot be compared with motor control, and its response time cannot be compared. This is common sense, so we hope to convey this common sense to all consumers.

Responding to questions about the intelligence of new energy vehicles

There are also voices that believe that electric vehicles are not new energy vehicles. Ouyang Minggao pointed out that according to the current power structure, electric vehicles will reduce carbon emissions throughout their life cycle by more than 40% compared to fuel vehicles. According to the current development speed, China's wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 3 billion kilowatts in 2030, which is 2.5 times the coal power installed capacity. Therefore, electric vehicles will become new energy vehicles that mainly consume green electricity.

2. Current technical issues
Ouyang Minggao said that the most talked about issue at present is safety. According to data from the National Fire and Rescue Bureau, among the vehicles that spontaneously ignited in the first quarter of 2023, there were 18,360 fuel vehicles and 640 new energy vehicles. Judging from the fire rate, the rate for fuel vehicles is 0.58 per 10,000 and for new energy vehicles is 0.44 per 10,000. However, spontaneous combustion of electric vehicles is news, while fuel vehicles are not.

Responding to questions about the safety of new energy vehicle batteries

He said that the spontaneous combustion rate of electric vehicles will be further reduced in the next step. Because it will also introduce defect detection on the battery production line and introduce vehicle-network interaction to increase safety measures, it will bring about all-round upgrades to battery life and vehicle safety. Moreover, all-solid-state batteries will be added to the car in the future, which will also improve the safety of electric vehicles, so we must have confidence in the development prospects.

When talking about battery recycling, Ouyang Minggao said that in fact, lithium batteries have high utilization value, rich recycling technologies, and active innovation. There are currently three main paths: fire recycling, wet recycling, and direct recycling.

In addition, when talking about doubts about battery life and energy replenishment, he also mentioned that the low temperature and freezing rain weather encountered this winter has caused strong negative public opinion about electric vehicles. In fact, there are already electric vehicles with a cruising range of 1,000 kilometers, and supercharging technology that can charge 400 kilometers in 10 minutes has begun to be industrialized. But for mainstream household compact models priced between RMB 70,000 and RMB 100,000, it is still difficult to have these configurations.

Respond to questions about electric vehicles not being new energy vehicles

In the current market situation, A-class cars sell more than 5 million units a year. If you want to further increase the market share of new energy vehicles from 31% to 50%, this is also the most important customer group. So it can be seen that car companies are basically adopting pure electric and plug-in hybrid two-wheel drive product strategies. This is also very true. In particular, plug-in hybrid models will play a decisive role in breaking through the mainstream status of fuel vehicles and seizing the mainstream A-class household market, and their performance will also surpass that of fuel vehicles in all aspects.

3. Future Prospects
Ouyang Minggao said that new energy vehicles are a technical system, not a single electrification. It contains the entire connotation of the fourth industrial revolution. It has led three changes: electrification change, intelligent change, and low-carbon change.

He believes that the next step for the automobile industry is to adhere to electrification. Electrification is an established strategy and technical route that has been repeatedly demonstrated for more than 20 years and cannot be shaken or needs to be changed. We must carry electrification to the end and make every effort to conquer the next generation of electrification core technology - all-solid-state battery technology. In terms of market, we adopt a two-wheel drive strategy. On the one hand, we will continue to optimize the performance of pure electric vehicles under extreme working conditions. The development model must also transform from "using vehicles to drive piles" to "using piles to drive cars". On the other hand, we will vigorously promote plug-in vehicles. Electric vehicles have rapidly increased their market share to more than 50%.

To accelerate intelligence, we must seize the opportunities of the artificial intelligence revolution and strive to conquer the next generation of intelligent core technology - fully autonomous driving technology. Accelerate the wide-scale application of artificial intelligence in the entire life cycle of new energy vehicle design, manufacturing, management, and recycling.

Pay attention to low carbonization, adhere to the goal of near-zero emissions for new energy vehicles, optimize dual points, introduce carbon trading, strengthen the collaborative interaction between new energy vehicles and new energy power, promote the integration of super fast charging with light, storage, charging and replacement, and also Promote the ecological integration and development of automobile, energy, road and cloud intelligent industries.

In terms of globalization, we must be more confident in opening the new energy vehicle market to foreign countries, reduce the import tax rate of new energy vehicles to 0, and strive to open up the international new energy vehicle market. Let them come in and we will go. China has missed the opportunity to become a fuel Opportunities for a strong automobile country. The automobile strong country we need to build now is to become a new energy automobile power.